Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS62 KCAE 221025
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
625 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS this
weekend with an early week warming trend. Hot and humid
conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during
the mid-week period under the continued influence of the upper
ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should
begin to break down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-  Warming trend begins today with above normal temperatures.

Satellite imagery shows mainly high clouds streaming across the area
from the northeast as strong upper ridge and surface high pressure
are building over the TN and OH Valleys. Guidance continues to
suggest the development of some stratus in the coming pre-dawn
hours, most likely toward the coastal plain. This seems plausible
given 1 to 3 degree dewpoint depressions at a few locations across
the Midlands with light and variable to calm winds. The high clouds
should be thin enough to allow for a few degrees of additional
cooling, with lows this morning ending up in the low 70s.

For the remainder of today, high pressure through the column will
dominate our sensible weather, kicking off a warming trend as highs
reach the mid 90s. Passing high clouds and a cumulus field are
expected to develop this afternoon, with PWATs between 1.3" and
1.5". Boundary layer mixing should bring dewpoints down into the mid
to upper 60s until the sea breeze moves inland this evening. The
official forecast is dry given these conditions, and hi-res guidance
is generally pessimistic about any shower or thunderstorm
development along the sea breeze when it gets to our area. Should be
a bit of rinse and repeat this evening and overnight, with lows in
the low 70s and the potential for some patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions with heat and humidity combining to produce
  dangerous heat index values near advisory criteria.

High confidence regarding the evolution of the strong upper
ridging during the short term, which is expected to be in firm
control of the weather pattern across the eastern CONUS through
Wednesday. Strong subsidence will result in a warming trend as
temperatures rise to around 100 degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday. There is a high likelihood for dangerously high heat
index values which will approach our Heat Advisory criteria of
108 degrees or higher for two or more hours. Continued the trend
of lowering both T and Td grids from the NBM, which had high
temperatures in excess of 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday,
quite the feat for our CWA this time or year without an ongoing
drought. After these adjustments, resultant heat index values
were in excess of 100 degrees every day, with Wednesday showing
the highest potential for some locations to meet or exceed the
108 mark. Regardless of whether criteria is met for heat
products, caution should be used when outside during peak
heating early this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging may begin to break down during the extended,
  with an increase chance for afternoon and evening convection.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue for much of
the long term. Strong upper ridging is shown to break down in
the guidance, allowing for slightly cooler but still above
normal temperatures. If the ridge breaks down as modeled in some
of the guidance, the threat of afternoon and evening convection
should return, though the probability of precipitation remains
low, less than 30 percent, during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected most of the TAF period, but some fog and
stratus with associated restrictions are possible this morning.

Mainly high clouds across the area this morning, but guidance
continues to indicate the possibility for IFR restrictions from
about 10-12z at OGB/CAE/CUB. While stratus related restrictions are
not expected at the Augusta terminals, some patchy fog is possible
mainly at AGS around daybreak. Any restrictions end shortly after
sunrise as mixing in the boundary layer begins, and the rest of the
TAF period should be VFR. Another SCT-BKN cumulus field should
develop this afternoon, but precip chances remain low. Surface winds
once again ELY/SELY less than 10 kts. Winds tonight into Monday
morning then light and variable to calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity is possible to end the weekend, which could bring
associated restrictions. Next week looks to be on the drier side
with minimal restrictions expected at this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$